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RIEB, Kobe University Site Map Access 日本語 Home Research & Education Publications RIEB Discussion Paper Series (English) RIEB Discussion Paper Series No.2014-12 RIEB Discussion Paper Series No.2014-12 Title Exchange Rate Adjustment, Monetary Policy and Fiscal Stimulus in Japan's Escape from the Great Depression Abstract A veteran finance minister, Takahashi Korekiyo, brought an early recovery for Japan from the Great Depression of the 1930s by prescribing a combination of expansionary fiscal, exchange rate, and monetary policies. To explore the comprehensive transmission mechanism of Takahashi's macroeconomic policy package, including the expectation channel, we construct a structural vector auto-regression (S-VAR) model with three state variables (output, price, and the inflation expectations) and three policy variables (fiscal balance, exchange rate, and money stock). Our analysis reveals that the exchange rate adjustment undertaken as an independent policy tool had the strongest effect, and that changes in people's expectations played a significant role for escaping from the Great Depression. During the second half of 1931, in particular, speculation on Japan's departure from the gold standard and the inflation that was likely to follow reversed the existing expectations: instead of expecting deflation, people began to expect inflation, months ahead of the actual departure from the gold standard. As a whole, the choice of the level of the exchange rate was crucial for changing people's expectations as well as promoting exports. Keywords Great depression, Japanese economy, Macroeconomic policy, Expectation, Vector auto-regressive model, Commodity futures JEL Classification E52, E63, N15 Inquiries Masahiko SHIBAMOTO Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe UniversityRokkodai-cho, Nada-ku, Kobe657-8501 Japan Phone: +81-78-803-7036 FAX: +81-78-803-7059 Masato SHIZUME Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan About RIEB Faculty Seminars at RIEB Research & Education Sections Kobe University Site Policy Site Map Access Contact Us Copyright©1996-2018 Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University. All Rights Reserved.